I use Python to derive team ratings from Pinnacle Sports Asian handicaps, and visualize how each team’s rating changed throughout the 2024-2025 Premier League season.
How to understand the role of variance and evaluate your betting strategy.
Visualizing rail travel times from the centre of London to surrounding stations with the use of Python, SQLite and the folium package.
Creating a logistic regression model to predict the chance of scoring a goal in each minute of a football match based on the pre-match odds, current score, minutes elapsed, and any red cards.
I demonstrate how the Poisson and negative binomial distributions compare to actual football scores from the English top flight, and how we can convert Elo ratings into correct score probabilities.
Using an Elo-derived simulation model, I ranked the five biggest late-season collapses in the English top flight since World War Two. Liverpool and Manchester United fans may wish to proceed with caution.
